BOYZZZZ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Last week was gross.  Each matchup day started insanely promising and then down the stretch i would get crushed.  I didn’t bet Saturday and wasn’t feeling it.  Same kinda thing happened last year at Kapalua.  Really weird how it went down.  Anyway it doesn’t matter.  The golf season really starts this week.   LETS FRIGGIN DO THIS!

This week!

We stay in Hawaii but hop islands and head to Honolulu for the SONY OPEN at  Waialae Country Club.

Full field event with a cut!   T65 and ties now.  Love it.   The course is short (7044 yards) and fairly open. This is a second shot course by far.  We hit the winner four years ago at 40-1 (Kuchar). Three years ago we had Palmer at 90 to 1 and I touted it as my favorite play of the week.  He ended up coming 4th.  Remember he hit a wood out of the bunker on a par 5?  Two years ago we had Webb, Niemann, Kirk, and Berger who all came top 10 but Kevin Na ran away with it.  Last year we leaned on ball strikers and Hideki (dope ball striker) won but we weren’t on him.   Really looking at stormy Georgie for this.  Last year was windy and rainy and gross .  When weather is normal this is another scoring course but wind can play a factor for sure.  JT shot 59 here a few years back and crushed the field..   

One other note is this course is very similar to Mayakoba which Hovland won back to back (BALL STRIKING).  Lots of guys who won Maykoba have won this course.  Also i think 8 of the last 9 winners played Kapalua the week before.  Honda and RBC Heritage are other corollary tourneys. The bottom line is this will become an approach mostly a wedge fest tourney.   Its the dudes that stick their wedges.  Webb, Na, Smith, Kisner, Reavie, Hideki to name a few.  Here is your top guys in tourney history.

STATS - These are the stats im lookin at this week.  Tweaked from last year based on my thoughts.

Ball Striking - Always but this week especially

Prob Blend - Mostly wedges

T2G - Ive noticed this is the biggest stat that seems to win at this course

Approach - Second shot golf course

Par 4 Scoring - only two par 5s.  Both reachable.  Have to perform on the 4s.

BOB - Especially if the weather is nice we need to go low.  Bombs over bagdad

STAT MODEL RESULTS

GUYS IM LOOKING AT EARLY

Harman - Too short but im tempted and he is 1 in the model

Conners - I think im on him.  Plays well here because he is so good at ball striking.  I like him a lot.  Can he make enough putts.

Hideki - I like him but I dont see a back to back.

Tom Kim - Kid s so good.  Tough to pay 11 to 1 on him though

Davis - Love cam Davis in this spot. Hits it a mile and plays shorter courses well.  Can go low.

Spieth - Like him.  Feels like good value but I dont know if I get there.

Ben griffin - Sleeper sleeper sleeper.  This kid played really well in the swing season and I could see big things.

Woodland - Short coastal course.  That’s where he won his us open on (pebble).  Im interested

Im - Too short for me but he’s so damn good.

Bradley - U see keegs?  Got in amazing shape.  May look at him on a ball striker course

Kitayama - Love this play this week but wish it was a little higher.  We will see if I can fit him on my card.

Hershel - Already bet.  I can’t stand him but he fits the narrative of played last week and 35 to 1 for Billy in this field is crazy.

Knox - Wedge fest.  Is this a Knox henley week?

Glover - at 300 to 1 I dont hate this

Smotherman - Love this kid this year

Poston - Worth taking a look.  Like him on shorter courses.

Webby - Im in on web this week.  Loves it here.  Did he get right in the off season

Bramlet - I think he gets a win this year.  Heard it here first

Montgomery - Doesn’t stat out well but I already bet him.  Hes winning this year and I dont want to miss it.

Wu - Watch out for him this year.

McCarthy - Is this his year.  Can he take that amazing putting and put 4 rounds together?

Ryan Palmer - Love him here.  Doesn’t get in too much trouble spraying.

Kizzire - Former winner.  130 to 1?  Yup

Taiga Semikawa - SLEEPER SLEEPER SLEEPER -  Former #1 Am and can play some golf.  I got him at 350 to 1 and put 14 bucks on him.  You do the math.

Zach - Freddys boy ZJ.  I dont know what the odds are but I dont mind him.

Mav - I like mcnealy here.

CBEZ - Not sure I get there but he is on my radar this week

Cole Hammer - Contended in the swing season for like 3.5 days and then he didn’t.  Maybe

Jimmy Walker - Bit of a stretch but this dude once won a major.  Now he’s 500 to 1?

English - Prob too short but he’s a good player